I Love Geography

I Love Geography

Sunday, 14 November 2010

Should China keep its one child policy? - Part II

A far greater proportion of men to women is having grave effects in China. As a result prostitution in China is dramatically rising along with human trafficking, with thousands of women every year being smuggled in from neighbouring countries such as Burma and North Korea.

Normally in a population that is replacing itself, with a fertility rate of two, parents expect to have two children to bring up and a sibling to help them care for their parents in their old age. However China is suffering from the 4-2-1 problem, each couple is responsible for four parents and a Child. By 2015 China is expected to be in a "demographic deficit" leaving the nation in a situation similar to other ageing populations, but without the prosperity to support this. The imbalanced structure will mean that China's workforce will decline with the majority of workers ageing and not being replaced. In 2004 the President, Hu Jintao created a meeting of 250 demographers to discuss the problem. There was talk of changes such as using spacing (the time between births) and scrapping the quotas that forced couples to have an abortion, even if it was there first child if the neighbour hood birth limit had been reached. However little changed as a result.

One question involving the policy is would abolishing it lead to bigger families. The obvious answer may be yes however from a closer look the answer may be different, the one child policy has changed attitudes towards families greatly. China's fertility rate was already falling rapidly in the 1970s, before the policy was introduced, and has since followed patterns similar to those in neighbouring countries such as Japan and South Korea. . According to leading demographers lifting the policy would make little difference to the population structure, but would perhaps reduce the gender imbalance and reduce deaths from abortions. China is now a country of small families, and a 2008 survey suggested that 76% of the populace approved of the policy, meaning it is likely to stay for a while longer

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